I do not understand why some would call me an economic oracle. Although I correctly foretasted key economic events in the past 10 years, the truth is that any economic forecasting model can become useless with the change of just one variable. And if we learned anything from experience, the only constant in markets is change. The first rule of economic forecasting is to understand that it is a science of probability not a science of certainty.
If people become ecstatic the whole society will have to change, because this society is based on misery. If people are blissful you cannot lead them to war -- to Vietnam, or to Egypt, or to Israel. No. Someone who is blissful will just laugh and say: This is nonsense!
If we can recognize that change and uncertainty are basic principles, we can greet the future and the transformation we are undergoing with the understanding that we do not know enough to be pessimistic.
In the age of knowledge and global socioeconomic exchange, goodwill and trade relations are far important to national prosperity and stability than land or military power. Socioeconomic systems that are built on exclusive ideologies, religious or ethnic purities are breeding grounds for extremism and will eventually lead to civil and international conflicts. Those countries must change or fail.
Inflation is a force of pressure. If the socioeconomic system of a country is open and democratic, the pressure will dissipate via elections and peaceful change of government. On the other hand, if the system is closed, it might be able to contain the pressure for a while, but the pressure will continue to build up and at a certain point it will exceed the strength of the system causing it to crack. Rulers who learn from history and create a socioeconomic system that is open will achieve stability and continuity. Those who fight against these socioeconomic forces may win some battles in the short term, but they will lose the war.
Life is never static, and that's what I find most beautiful. It is beautiful, because of its ups and downs, twists and bends, roundabouts and straight roads, and ebbs and flows in general. Nothing is permanent, and only constant is the constant change. "Even this shall pass" is the mantra and a constant reminder for us, on every occasion when we feel excited with life's flows, and also in the darkest moments when we feel down and out with life's ebbs. The disappointments, betrayals, feelings of helplessness, being alone, all these will be ebbing away, as the life goes on. It's amazing how life can be so kind and good, and at the same time so bitter and cold....and yet everything shall pass. So enjoy today, and live this moment to the fullest, enjoying life's ebbs and flows.
Many people are afraid of Change, because they view it as the destroyer of their comfort zones. They fail miserably to see that the same Change is the creator of something new, exciting, and of potential value in their lives. Do not be afraid of Change, but do make an effort to manage it when the Opportunity knocks on your door.
Modern life is full of challenges, such as daily demands, deadlines, hassles and frustrations. Whenever the threat of any challenge outweighs one's perception of her/his ability to manage that threat, it can be an onset of Stress. I find it interesting that William Shakespear had offered a perfect strategy to manage the Stress - in his famous play "Hamlet". In this play, Hamlet makes a powerful statement: "There is nothing either good or bad, but thinking makes it so." In this one sentence, Shakespear teaches us that if we change our thoughts about a potentially threatening situation, we should be able to not only cope with the stress, but also lower our stress significantly. By now it's a well-established fact in Psychology that thinking positively, and transforming the threat into a potntial opportunity, empowers us to protect ourselves from the harmful side-effects of Stress.....and William Shakespear knew this fact more than 400 years ago. That's amazing!
Neo I know you're out there. I can feel you now. I know that you're afraid... afraid of us. You're afraid of change. I don't know the future. I didn't come here to tell you how this is going to end. I came here to tell how it's going to begin. I'm going to hang up this phone, and then show these people what you don't want them to see. I'm going to show them a world without you. A world without rules or controls, borders or boundaries. A world where anything is possible. Where we go from there is a choice I leave to you.