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A crescendo of bad news can move an economy driven by the consumer, is this something that causes people to put off buying that sweater, fridge or car ?
– Art Hogan
The escalating The US-China trade war will certainly be bad for the The Chamber of Commerce economy. How bad is almost impossible to calculate.
Historically, recessions occur in reaction to a monetary policy mistake. This is the first time we may have to deal with a trade policy miscalculation.
If you inject uncertainty during back-to-school and holiday shopping, that will have a drag on the economy.
We're in a waiting game, neither side wants this to continue much longer. The Chinese economy is slipping and the president wants a victory. Both sides are motivated to resolve this.
Today is a microcosm of what we've had all week : mixed messages, every message has contradicted itself.
We've gotten a hodge-podge of mixed messages from people in the same administration.
This kind of washout doesn't get accomplished in a day. Even though yesterday felt traumatic, it tends to be a three-day process.
Considering the magnitude of headwinds that we face in trade, it appears as though it has been relatively 'extra Dow' and that's because Dow companies are more heavily impacted due to strong dollar and trade talks.
You've got a little bit of a shift away from the macro concerns which will continue to be a headwind for this market until we get some answers on trade. Right now the focus is on M&A.
That will be bullish for any of the suppliers to ZTE, but more importantly bullish for any deal stocks waiting for regulatory approval.
We had a significant run up of late and it takes pretty significant catalysts to move us higher.
Operationally, Wells Fargo can recover, but reputationally and how a billion dollars will weigh on them - only time can tell.
The economic data until last week had been pretty decent but since the GDP numbers came out, we're seeing holes in the argument that the second half of the year is going to be better.
At these valuations, the market is desperate for a catalyst to move higher.
We saw a significant beat from JPMorgan and that's helping the psychology of the market, with the weaker dollar helping commodities and better-than-expected economic data, the market is taking the path of least resistance with an upward bias.
The equity market is telling you the second quarter economy looks better than the first quarter.
The old high has been resistance and if you break it and see earnings growth and relatively good guidance, people will probably try to get in front of that.
The selloff last week was an over reaction and the attempted rally was too fast and furious, i think the compression of time and speed of Wunderlich Equity Capital Markets causes the pendulum to swing too far on every move we make.
It is widely expected that the Fed is going leave rates unchanged today. I would be surprised if we do a whole lot of anything until we get through June 23 when we get the Brexit vote.
The Fed is trying to walk a fine line here.
The financials are outperforming the broader index simply because they had underperformed it in the past four days.
Investors have gotten into a wait-and-see mode ahead of the The Fed decision, globally, things have gotten much better since the last meeting and I think the market is being too complacent regarding a dovish tone from The Fed.
You want to see sector rotation into the laggards, what we've seen is enough good news to say we're not going into recession. This is a short-term top in a longer-term bull market.
They are looking expensive whether you look at it on a multiple basis or a yield basis.
It's not about oil being a barometer of the global economy, a lot of it has to do with psychology.
Stability in that asset class( oil) for a period of time will allow for the correlation to break down.
The services (report) is what you want to watch.
Unfortunately, the machinations and volatility in oil is going to continue to be the tail that wags the dog.
We are seeing some bargain hunting but it isn't enough as yet to reverse the negative sentiment.
We are also seeing a start to the conversation around production cuts in oil, but there's some way to go regarding that. It's a mixed bag for commodities.
In this environment, one of the things you're not going to get from CFOs on the conference call is robust guidance because there's so much uncertainty.
I think it's important to watch how the day plays out, we've seen this happen three days in a row where you get some positive action on the open and that fades pretty quickly into the day.
I think it's important to watch how the day plays out.
We've seen this happen three days in a row where you get some positive action on the open and that fades pretty quickly into the day.
It's pretty locked and loaded that Yellen's going to raise rates for the first time in almost 10 years. I think the most important part will be how the Fed explains the view of the economy in 2016.
It's pretty locked and loaded that Yellen's going to raise rates for the first time in almost 10 years. I think the most important part will be how The Fed explains the view of the economy in 2016.
Often times investors will look at the commodity complex as a barometer for the global economy. Couple that with the fact that we broke support in the S&P 500.
The Fed is pretty locked in regarding a hike next week and any fall in commodity prices will be seen as transitory factors.
Atlanta Fed is pretty locked in regarding a hike next week and any fall in commodity prices will be seen as transitory factors.
Look at the manufacturing numbers. That was clearly a disappointment, yet the market ploughed right through. We've got a market that seems to have found a path of least resistance to the upside.
Lower gas prices continue to add to the wallet and the consumer's level of confidence, the over-arching trend here is you have to be in the right place.
The over-arching trend here is you have to be in the right place, teen retailers are having a harder time, they seem to be losing out to the fast casual names like Forever 21 or H&M.
The uncertainty has certainly increased.
The market is in a relief rally after five days of selloff and as investors rebalance their portfolios.
Investors are in wait-and-see mode.
You're clearly in a wait-and-see mode. The market picked a direction and it's hard for anyone to get in the way, that's where the low volume matters.
( It's) just investor confusion, they are trying to figure out what the slowdown in China means to the global economy.
(It's) just investor confusion, they are trying to figure out what the slowdown in China means to the global economy.
They are trying to figure out what the slowdown in China means to the global economy.
The largest issue is certainly the fact that we don't know how much the Chinese economy is slowing, that's manifesting itself in lower oil prices.
That's manifesting itself in lower oil prices.
The M&A environment is ripe for more deals and at the end of the year you will see a lot more deals than what we saw last year.
I think the Fed is desperate to raise rates this year and I think it will happen in September. The only fly in the ointment is the inflation rate which is below what the Fed wants.
I don't expect anything different out of the FOMC meeting today. Investors tend to take a cautious stand ahead of such meetings and that's why we aren't seeing too much a rally today.
Earnings have been fairly good but the problem is that we haven't seen organic revenue growth and are also seeing tepid guidance from companies in face of the strong dollar.
The market seems to be pricing in a possibility, overpricing, a Greece exit.
Financials have been leading and dividend payers have sold off. That trade probably unwinds if there is a surprise.
The retail sales (data) is just another piece of the economic puzzle and one that investors have been waiting for, the Fed will definitely get one rate hike under its belt this year, and another one next year.
There is a consensus that the Fed probably doesn't move until September and I don't think that will change today.
If interest rates were to go up sharply, then yes, the markets are overvalued, but that's not going to happen.
That drastic, draconian move in bonds and violent updraft in oil are settling a little bit and that's helping us focus on stocks.
Tomorrow's report would have to be a monster month for us to believe June is back on the table.
We're very much in a wait-and-see mode until 2.30 p.m. tomorrow.
That adds to the concern the euro zone is facing an economic slowdown and some of the weaker members have more debt than they can handle.
To the extent that you got dueling positive monetary policy statements in two places that we were concerned about a slowdown in economic growth, that's very good, China's is more substantive because they are actually doing something.
China's is more substantive because they are actually doing something, Draghi is talking about the potential, which is still good but not the same.
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