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I don't foresee an outsized risk of a breakout in inflation, as long as this picture continues, the (Fed) can increase rates gradually while monitoring any rising inflationary pressures.
In this setting, the federal funds rate does not need to be increased as much above its neutral setting as in the past when trend inflation needed to be taken down several notches, gradual policy increases in this context make sense—certainly as a way to limit the damage if policy ever actually becomes overly tight too soon.
I think we have the opportunity to more patiently read - and react to - the incoming data.
I also think that a reasonable case can be made for holding off increasing the funds rate until core inflation actually gets to 2 percent on a sustainable basis, frankly, I ’m really of two minds at the moment, and I expect to take this quandary with me into the next( Chicago Fed) meeting.
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