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The macro stakes around the timing are rather low, what is important is the inference that can be drawn about how they are reading the inflation tea leaves. How anxious are they to wrap up their bond-purchase program in a timely manner before they might want to raise the (federal funds) rate? That is why this decision is of more than passing interest.
At the end of 2018 it looked like the economy was moving forward in a continued solid manner, the risks were predominantly to the upside and it was not prominent on our radar screen or anybody's that the trade war's machinations would be taken to the extent that they have been...The news from abroad, by wide consensus, has been disappointing.
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