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I'm sure if the court reverses the lower court decisions, there will be a dissent arguing that they should have upheld the decisions. So, it could be a fragmented court, but the majority might be split between people who say diversity is not compelling and people who say, ‘Wait, we still want to recognize that it’s compelling, but we don't believe Harvard or North Carolina offered sufficient evidence that the programs were necessary,'.
If the court said that diversity is not a compelling interest, the first thing to bear in mind is that because they likely said academic freedom is not a constitutionally protected interest under the First Amendment, at least in so far as it relates to institutional autonomy to select the student body, that means that you will greatly weaken the autonomy of colleges and universities, not only with respect to admissions, but with respect to other things like curriculum.
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