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For the first time in a while we're finally waking up to the fact that this issue could go on for a while and have a significant impact on Chinese and global economic growth and potentially the United States, when people react to it because they don't travel or go to restaurants or go shopping, that'll have an immediate impact on the economy. It depends how long it goes and how wide the spread.
Obviously they have to come to a consensus and certainly Yellen drives that more than anyone else but then everyone on the Board and even those that aren’t voters this year go out and say things that are that are completely contradictory, i’m not sure that the new Fed transparency is of any value if they all disagree with each other anyway.
It seems to me that it is Europe that is driving most of what is going on right now - negotiations that are going on with Greece, the volatility in German Bunds, those sort of things. if those things settle down, then our markets will settle down into what they would normally do, which is get quiet before the big monthly reports.
The futures weren't looking too good and that retail report didn't do it any good, it took a big nosedive after that, yesterday it was amazing because it started out so strong and ended up on a very sour note, and we just now see a continuation of that. It doesn't look like it's going to be a pretty day at this point.
I don't know that it really makes a huge difference because ultimately they will hedge anything they do in that regard by simply saying it is all data-dependent, there does seem to be a lot of focus on the language, but I don't know that the removal of the language, even if it happens, really brings the date of rate increases any closer if the data doesn't support it.
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