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For the most part, the market seems to be in a holding pattern until year-end, there has been such strong gains for the year that I think that until the fresh money comes in after year-end for new contributions to IRAs and other retirement accounts to start the year, I just don't think there is a lot of push to drive this too much higher.
This type of reaction we see almost every time from the Fed decisions, the first move is from the people who think it's not enough, and at the end of the day people conclude that they did exactly what investors expected them to do. Those people who got what they expected used the selloff to buy, and I think that's what happened here.
There continues to be some concern over interest rates and their potential impact on equities. There's also been a little bit of a lack of momentum in this earnings period, it's not that earnings weren't good enough but company forecasts often weren't strong enough to make the market continue to rise.
The dominant theme in global markets is low interest rates and liquidity and the support it provides for the stock market, for equities globally, every fearful drop in the global stock market has been met by this lack of alternatives and cheap cost of financing... It's a 'risk on' when the world's central banks have your back.
Today, really you’re seeing just that back-and-forth that has been here for months: very tight ranges, modest movements and just a mix between uncertainty and having such low interest rates that there isn’t somewhere else to go, there isn’t a lot of conviction on the part of global investors for any of the asset classes.
This is hardly a big selloff but we are having trouble breaking through( to new highs on the S&P) because of a lack of consistently good earnings and economic data, one of the few positives is a weaker dollar but it is hard to see a reason for that to continue ; rates are being lowered around the world and expected to rise here( in the United States), there's no clear path to a lower dollar.
This is hardly a big selloff but we are having trouble breaking through (to new highs on the S&P) because of a lack of consistently good earnings and economic data, one of the few positives is a weaker dollar but it is hard to see a reason for that to continue; rates are being lowered around the world and expected to rise here (in the United States), there's no clear path to a lower dollar.
The Fed really for the first time has been sending kind of mixed signals about the pace of raising rates, if the economy is good enough for them to raise rates that could be a good move for stocks, if they are just raising rates in anticipation of the economy picking up and it never does that is a pretty negative sign.
People have seen in the past that these oil rallies have been very short, and to the extent they influence the equity markets, there is certainly some profit-taking going on, people are selling every rally that is based on the movement of oil, because by the end of the day it can turn around and be down another 5 percent.
There could be events I suppose, terrorism or otherwise, that could make you postpone, but I think the certainly of (a rate hike) is up over the 90 percent mark, the Fed has given investors a lot of time and a lot of direction that they plan to do this, if it is coming as a surprise to you now, you just haven't been following this.
There was clearly some forced selling, whether it was forced selling or just stop=losses for large, aggressive hedge funds, it got very sloppy, and you then saw buyers start to emerge. But a lot of those buyers were short-term in nature and took some of their gains around lunchtime. Now we're seeing a second wave of selling.
The Swiss move was obviously the big move, people are trying to get their arms around what it means for the U.S. stock market, the market has taken a few-day drop and the bump in energy prices this morning is probably providing a bit of a solid bid for some of the oversold names in the energy sector. It will take some of the morning to sort out the impact of the Swiss move across the board.
You've seen some real volatility in everything from energy to currencies and it's had a bit of a spillover effect on the market as people try to think about the impact of these moves, to some extent a drop in oil prices, of course, is positive, but there comes a point at which people begin to be concerned whether the drop is too much, too fast, and can there be unintended consequences.
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