While most of the surface-based risk should remain over the northern Gulf, an uptick in tornado potential very late in the period warrants an inclusion of 5 % tornado probability.

Storm Prediction Center

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is a US government agency that is part of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), operating under the control of the National Weather Service (NWS), which in turn is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) of the United States Department of Commerce (DoC).Headquartered at the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma, the Storm Prediction Center is tasked with forecasting the risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in the contiguous United States. It issues convective outlooks, mesoscale discussions, and watches as a part of this process. Convective outlooks are issued for the following eight days (issued separately for Day 1, Day 2, Day 3, and Days 4–8), and detail the risk of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes during the given forecast period, although tornado, hail and wind details are only available for Days 1 and 2. Day 3, as well as 4–8 use a probabilistic scale, determining the probability for a severe weather event in percentage categories. Mesoscale discussions are issued to provide information on certain individual regions where severe weather is becoming a threat and states whether a watch is likely and details thereof, particularly concerning conditions conducive for the development of severe thunderstorms in the short term, as well as situations of isolated severe weather when watches are not necessary. Watches are issued when forecasters are confident that severe weather will occur, and usually precede the onset of severe weather by one hour, although this sometimes varies depending on certain atmospheric conditions that may inhibit or accelerate convective development. The agency is also responsible for forecasting fire weather (indicating conditions that are favorable for

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