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It now looks like the BEA data will need to be revised up, we continue to expect inventories to boost GDP growth significantly in third quarter following the big pullback reported through the second quarter. We also think equipment spending will continue to increase at a solid rate in the third quarter.
This decline came after very strong productivity growth in the middle quarters of the year, and we think that the pandemic has led to a shift in economic activity away from some low-productivity sectors that has led to firming in productivity growth through some of the noise in the quarterly readings.
We had been expecting a move up like this because we thought that temporary auto plant shutdowns would lead to more initial claims filings during the week ending June 30 than normal for comparable weeks in recent years, we think that the temporary plant closures, which usually are on and off for about a month in the weeks around July 4, are likely generating noise in the claims data now, so we do not think that the increase in claims over the past two weeks is an especially negative sign for the labor market.
The longer they wait, the more data they have. If their view is playing out that the economy is on a better footing than suggested by the last payroll report, I think they'd become more likely to hike, we think May is going to prove to be an outlier in terms of job growth and we're going to see some pickup in the coming months, but I think The Federal Reserve wants to see that really before hiking.
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