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This is a very dangerous part of the cycle, we're 10 years into an expansion and it seems clear that the Fed has overtightened. Unemployment is a lagging indicator. And negative interest rates can be found in many places. If the(Fed's) goal is to keep the expansion going, they need to be more aggressive. You have to think bigger than a so-called (and mislabeled) insurance rate cut.
Nominal GDP growth over the past five years would have been negative if U.S. public debt had not increased, one thing everybody seems to miss when they look at these GDP numbers ... they seem to not understand that the growth in the GDP it looks pretty good on the screen is really based exclusively on debt - government debt, also corporate debt and even now some growth in mortgage debt.
The investment teams at DoubleLine have deep experience managing non-dollar investments as well as foreign bonds. The question was not if but when we would offer our global bond strategy, with the dollar having rallied so sharply in recent years, non-dollar-denominated assets now have much greater value than at any time since the founding of DoubleLine.
The reason the markets aren't going lower is people are holding and hoping, the market bottoms out when people are selling and sold out - not when they are holding and hoping. I don't think you've seen real selling in risk assets broadly. Markets need buying to go up and they need volume to go up. They can fall just on gravity.
The reason the markets aren't going lower is people are holding and hoping, the market bottoms out when people are selling and sold out – not when they are holding and hoping. I don't think you've seen real selling in risk assets broadly. Markets need buying to go up and they need volume to go up. They can fall just on gravity.
What happens if the next data report that comes out is unchanged or stronger than the previous one, then talk of another hike gets louder, the Fed historically starts something and they continue on with The Fed as long as the situation stays largely similar. If you start raising rates after such a long period of zero-bound rates, it is a different regime.
I still believe that there is a danger of repeat of a Treasury meltup that 2014 did end up bringing, particularly into the crescendo of October 15, if something can't go up, it has to go down. Yields can't seem to go up. They might go down. And if they go down any amount again, if the 10-year goes below 2 percent, even below 2.20 percent, that's the line in the sand I am talking about.
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