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Stephen Innes

Stephen Innes is a 1987 Guggenheim Fellow in Humanities.

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The market is starting to readjust expectations for U.S. rate hikes after Powell’s speech on Friday, which was the green light for gold to move higher.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 23 days ago Top News

The dollar is staying weaker, that’s fairly supportive. Gold bulls now have their eyes set on $2,000, and most are thinking it’s going to go quite a lot higher.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 3 months ago Top News

When demand drives commodity prices, it has a more bullish impact and leaves a more lasting reflection on price action.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 7 months ago Top News

Wallstreetbets is hitting the point of diminishing value, retail traders will still be a force to be reckoned with, but we are perhaps past the peak YOLO world with the cat out of the bag.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 7 months ago Top News

All the ingredients for a rapid recovery from Q2 onwards are getting sweetly baked into the reopening party cake.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 7 months ago Top News

Vaccine breakthroughs make it likely that life will become more functional again at some point in 2021, resulting in higher GDP growth and more robust corporate earnings, but increasing global COVID19 infections, new variants of the virus, tightening social distancing restrictions and delays in vaccine rollouts in some places, all increase the near-term growth risks.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 8 months ago Top News

The spotlight will be on Washington DC this week.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 8 months ago Top News

Softer jobs growth and tighter social mobility restrictions ostensibly lower the hurdle for a policy response from (U.S.) Congress.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 9 months ago Top News

There's a solid chance we get an OPEC deal this week, when the going is cheap.

– Stephen Innes

Found on CNN 1 year ago World

China's industry is coming back to life, and they need oil and lots of it.

– Stephen Innes

Found on CNN 1 year ago World

Oil markets received a lift from the U.S. stimulus chatter, but for the most part activity remains rudderless, awash in a sea of oil.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 1 year ago Business

At that tipping point, the producer surplus will become a massive logistical headache for oil storage consideration, which then opens up the trap door for oil prices to plummet below cash costs.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 1 year ago Business

Throttling this Asian supply channel will provide some support for oil prices.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 1 year ago Business

Some shorts covered after the director gave the WHO's stamp of approval to China's aggressive containment effort, for now, the market's risk lights have shifted from flickering on red to a steady shade of amber, which could bring more risk back into play.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 1 year ago Top News

(The) sell-off on the ... flu scare was mollified by a timely decline in U.S. crude inventories.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 1 year ago Business

Once the (Phase 1) deal is signed, investors will then press to consider ... how much more progress can be realistically expected ahead of the US elections next year.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 1 year ago Company News

Oil prices have followed the general de-risking drift into year-end despite a rise in Middle East tensions and last week's bullish-for-oil-price inventory draws as the broader markets appear to be losing some of that holiday cheer.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 1 year ago Business

It's expected to show robust continuous growth in the agency's short-term outlook.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 1 year ago Business

With a more constructive global macro outlook than at any time in the last year, oil is well-supported by both fundamental factors and sentiment now.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 1 year ago Business

Oil prices will continue to benefit from the positive developments in the U.S.-China trade, with a more constructive global macro outlook than at any time in the last year, oil is well-supported by both fundamental factors and sentiment now.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 1 year ago Business

Crude prices continued their stellar performance into year-end, nudged along by the more benevolent inventory data published by the EIA, product demand is up, and with a more constructive global growth outlook than at any time of this year, oil markets remain supported by the fundamental backdrop.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 1 year ago Business

China is definitely offering up some pretty attractive olive branches.

– Stephen Innes

Found on CNN 1 year ago Technology

[ China knows ] if they don't make structural concessions, Trump will likely levy more tariffs.

– Stephen Innes

Found on CNN 1 year ago Technology

Maybe, just maybe we are finally nearing a long-awaited indication from President Trump that the protracted period of market adversity is mercilessly nearing its end.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 1 year ago Company News

Price action over the past 48 hours does illustrate just how quick traders are to revive fears about sluggish demand amid the thought of more abundant supplies.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 1 year ago Business

The OPEC induced oil rally has come to a grinding halt in the wake of the bearish to consensus API inventory swell, further OPEC cuts are unlikely the cure-all medicine. But by the numbers, the magnitude of the expected oversupply in 2020 is thought to be well within OPEC's ability to manage.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 1 year ago Business

The macro headwinds outweigh supply concerns for oil now, despite tensions in the Middle East and a reduced spare capacity pillow.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 1 year ago Business

Next week U.S.-China trade talks remain the unknown variable which could lend a modicum of support.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 1 year ago Business

For most of the week ... the market has been trading lower as oil bulls have been discouraged by the quicker-than-expected return of Saudi oil output.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 1 year ago Business

The expected lower demand for oil inputs into (U.S.) refineries typically sees U.S. crude inventories swell, all of which could pose a significant downside risk for prompt oil prices.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 1 year ago Business

Any sliver of optimism on the trade war front will be viewed in a very positive light, surely both parties can't be happy to move forward with their scorched earth policy.

– Stephen Innes

Found on CNN 2 years ago Top News

What the markets really waiting for is for Mitul Kotecha to drop interest rates, right now, we are still sitting on that uncertainty.

– Stephen Innes

Found on FOX News 2 years ago Politics

What the markets really waiting for is for Fox News to drop interest rates, right now, we are still sitting on that uncertainty.

– Stephen Innes

Found on FOX News 2 years ago Latest Headlines

Nobody understands where the president is coming from.

– Stephen Innes

Found on FOX News 2 years ago Latest Headlines

The U.S.-China trade spat has been at the center of the oil market demise, which has sent the global economy to the brink of recession and negatively impacted oil demand forecasts.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 2 years ago Business

Hoping for the best on the policy front but positioning for the worst on the economic backdrop seems to be the flavour of the day, the Fed, now out of necessity alone, will need to adjust policy much more profoundly than they expected.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 2 years ago Company News

Hoping for the best on the policy front but positioning for the worst on the economic backdrop seems to be the flavor of the day, the Fed, now out of necessity alone, will need to adjust policy much more profoundly than they expected.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 2 years ago Top News

Much the same could be true right now about the escalation of tariffs (and) with time, investors have managed to sidestep them and returned to the familiarity of focusing on the data, which in the case of the U.S. economy, still looks good.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 2 years ago Business

It's not economic uncertainty we should be worried about rather its the doom and gloom economic realities that the key forward-looking manufacturing PMI's are telling us about the dismal health of this rapidly deteriorating global macro environment.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 2 years ago Business

Oil prices got a small boost this morning after Libya's (NOC) declared force majeure on Sharara crude loaded at Zawiya port.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 2 years ago Business

The Fed backstop and the report of the U.S. Navy shooting down an Iranian drone are providing a modicum of support for oil markets amidst a very bearish landscape.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 2 years ago Business

Gasoline consumption is painfully weak given U.S. consumers are in peak driving season.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 2 years ago Business

The CPI report will have no material impact on Fed guidance nor have a significant influence on the great Fed debate around 25 or 50, after all, the FOMC is unquestionably willing to let inflation run hotter after spending the better part of a decade trying to ignite those flames.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 2 years ago Top News

After all, the FOMC is unquestionably willing to let inflation run hotter after spending the better part of a decade trying to ignite those flames.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 2 years ago Top News

Imports down, exports likely up and refinery utilization at yearly highs.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 2 years ago Business

There is nothing like an early start to the hurricane season to support oil prices, but looking under the hood of the EIA data, it paints an even rosier picture for U.S. oil markets, imports down, exports likely up and refinery utilization at yearly highs.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 2 years ago Business

The weaker global economic outlook is keeping oil prices under downward pressure, but tensions in the Middle East are enhancing awareness to possible supply risk and should keep a floor under oil in the medium term.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 2 years ago Business

A very cautious open this morning supported by a better than expected (non-farm payrolls), traders remain incredibly cautious about the dimmer global economic overhang.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 2 years ago Business

Tossing aside the short-term nature of fluctuations around the inventory data, it's impossible to escape the economic reality that we are in the midst of a global manufacturing downturn.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 2 years ago Business

When bullish signals fail to lift the oil market's spirits, we should be very concerned this downtrend could run much further than expected.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 2 years ago Top News

(OPEC) sticking to their production curbs ... will continue to support oil prices as it remains the primary mechanism for the delicate task of keeping the market equilibrium intact.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 2 years ago Business

Oil prices went ballistic after the API report, oil prices have been squeezing higher on escalating tensions in the Middle East. But with late-day draws showing up in the API report, this is a strong signal for the energy market.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 2 years ago Business

Oil prices have been squeezing higher on escalating tensions in the Middle East. But with late-day draws showing up in the API report, this is a strong signal for the energy market.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 2 years ago Business

Traders have lessened their odds for an immediate U.S.-Iran escalation in this forever smoldering hot spot.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 2 years ago Business

With the Mexican stalemate averted and no harmful shockwaves from this weekend G-20 meeting ... oil could trade favorably as WTI and Brent will continue to track the broader risk environment high.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 2 years ago Business

There are lots of supply risks with tensions this high.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 2 years ago Business

We have flipped from a state where it is a stock rally no one wants to take part in, to a frenzied paced splurge where hedge funds and investors alike continue to chase markets like greyhounds to the mechanical rabbit.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 2 years ago Top News

The U.S. chief Iran hawks indeed have the President's ear as (Secretary of State) Pompeo and (National Security Advisor) Bolton are singularly focused on bringing Iran's economy to its knees, predictably oil prices are rising.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 2 years ago Top News

Predictably oil prices are rising.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 2 years ago Top News

China's PMI number was the most significant monthly increase since 2012, which should ease concerns around a potential threat to oil demand.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 2 years ago Business

PMI is such a driver of commodity prices I do think the markets will swing to the demand side of the equation as that element is so underpriced.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 2 years ago Business

Crude continues to extend gains as early reports from Beijing regarding trade negotiations are fueling optimism around successful trade talks between the U.S. and China, after a dreadful December for risk markets, crude oil continues to catch a positive vibe.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 2 years ago Business

After a dreadful December for risk markets, crude oil continues to catch a positive vibe.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 2 years ago Business

There's a lack of adoption on Wall Street, the big banks that most people are doing business with are reticent to get involved, which I think is telling.

– Stephen Innes

Found on CNN 2 years ago Technology

Oil prices were flying higher overnight after catching an updraft from the U.S. administration calling for allies to cut Iran imports to zero tolerance.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 3 years ago Business

This escalation of the trade war is dangerous for oil prices, let's hope cooler heads prevail, but I'm not overly optimistic.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 3 years ago Company News

The deluge of U.S. crude production continues to hold the top-side in check.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 3 years ago Business

Expect more of the same whippy markets driven by rumors and innuendos ahead of June 22 Vienna OPEC meeting.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 3 years ago Business

If the market continues to trade off U.S. yields and diverging economic data between the U.S. and EU, it's hard to argue against the current direction in yields or the dollar, on the U.S. economic data front, the consumer remains the economy's backbone, and if this robust trend in the retail space continues to build, factor in a bit of wage growth pressure and the U.S. dollar will continue to move higher on the back of higher yields.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 3 years ago Business

The dollar momentum...is probably going to carry the way at least until the next negative headline comes out.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 3 years ago Company News

With so many potential supply disruptors in play and few signs that the current market upheaval will end any time soon, traders continue to pay the geopolitical risk premium, oil prices should remain bid ... at least through the Iran nuclear deal deadline (May 12) if not for the remainder of 2018.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 3 years ago Company News

I needed to do some minor adjustment on both hedging and pricing algos. I also adjusted some circuit breakers, given our anticipated views on market volatility. It's worth doing so to avoid issues later.

– Stephen Innes

Found on Reuters 5 years ago Company News

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