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Tomoaki Shishido

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We don't even need to wait for economic data to see how badly the economy is being hit. You can tell that the sales of airlines and hotels are already falling by a half or something like that.

– Tomoaki Shishido

Found on Reuters 1 year ago Business

It is fair to say the impact of the coronavirus will be clearly much bigger than the U.S.-China trade war. So the Fed does not have a reason to take a wait-and-see stance next month.

– Tomoaki Shishido

Found on Reuters 1 year ago Business

I think the Fed will clearly indicate that a rate cut in December is not its main scenario.

– Tomoaki Shishido

Found on Reuters 1 year ago Top News

The word 'patient' is used often when the Fed's policy direction is still tightening but its next rate hike can wait for a considerable time. So risk assets now enjoy support from what we can call Powell put.

– Tomoaki Shishido

Found on Reuters 2 years ago Top News

Recent data suggests the U.S. economy is very strong, hardly slowing down in Jan-Mar. The world economy slowed in that quarter but it appears to be rebounding. And recent rises in oil prices are likely to lift inflation expectations further, we expect more selling until the next Fed's meeting in June.

– Tomoaki Shishido

Found on Reuters 2 years ago Business

We expect more selling until the next Fed's meeting in June.

– Tomoaki Shishido

Found on Reuters 2 years ago Business

Since the strong retail sales data last Friday, the Fed has clearly started a communication campaign to urge markets to price in a hike in June, even though markets have not gone there yet, they set (Fed Chair Janet) Yellen's speech on June 6, just after the next payroll data and just before the blackout period will start before the next policy meeting. They wouldn't have to do this if they have no plan to raise rates in June.

– Tomoaki Shishido

Found on Reuters 4 years ago Business

Even dovish policy makers such as (Boston Fed President Eric) Rosengren are saying markets expectations are too low. And it is not hard to imagine many at the Fed feels current market rates are too low, so the Fed may try to urge markets to price in higher rates. On balance, we are more likely to have a hawkish surprise than a dovish surprise.

– Tomoaki Shishido

Found on Reuters 4 years ago Business

One hypothesis the labour data is putting forward is that employment may now be growing at a pace of almost 300,000 even after the dollar has strengthened considerably. That is clearly above the speed limit, if this continues while labour participation does not increase, the jobless rate will fall to around 4.5 percent by the end of year and the Fed risks falling behind the curve in keeping inflation in check.

– Tomoaki Shishido

Found on Reuters 5 years ago Company News

If this continues while labour participation does not increase, the jobless rate will fall to around 4.5 percent by the end of year and the Fed risks falling behind the curve in keeping inflation in check.

– Tomoaki Shishido

Found on Reuters 5 years ago Company News

One hypothesis the labor data is putting forward is that employment may now be growing at a pace of almost 300,000 even after the dollar has strengthened considerably. That is clearly above the speed limit, if this continues while labor participation does not increase, the jobless rate will fall to around 4.5 percent by the end of year and the Fed risks falling behind the curve in keeping inflation in check.

– Tomoaki Shishido

Found on Reuters 5 years ago Business

If this continues while labor participation does not increase, the jobless rate will fall to around 4.5 percent by the end of year and the Fed risks falling behind the curve in keeping inflation in check.

– Tomoaki Shishido

Found on Reuters 5 years ago Business

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