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The contraction this year is smaller than what I predicted publicly, but to my mind what Putin has done is prop up this year’s growth, in an accounting sense, by sacrificing long term growth potential, the lasting consequence of this war will be that Russia has lost Europe and the G7 as energy consumers and that’s going to dry out the major source of export revenue that remains. And it’s going to leave Russia as a smaller, weaker, more isolated economy.

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