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Payroll growth slowed considerably in May, raising the question of whether we were at the start of a reversal from the considerable progress that's been made in labor markets, or whether the weak reading was the type of transitory change we typically see during expansions, hiring rebounded in June, alleviating that concern.
If effective monetary policy means taking away the punch bowl just as the party gets going, then effective financial stability policy might mean taking away the punch bowl before the guests have even arrived because the risks to financial stability build up over time and action likely needs to be taken earlier in order to be effective.
I want to take the time I have between now and the September meeting to evaluate all the economic information that's come in, including recent volatility in markets and the reasons behind that, but it hasn’t so far changed my basic outlook that the U.S. economy is solid and it could support an increase in interest rates.
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