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Med Jones is the president of International Institute of Management - A US based think tank specializing in applied strategy in the fields of economics, financial markets, and business operations. Jones is one of the few experts who predicted the global financial crises of 2008. In 2006 he warned about three crises to hit the US in the decade from 2007-2017; the burst of the housing bubble, US national debt, and the social security deficit. His statements and predictions are followed by economic researchers and investment analysts around the world. He is also noted for his contribution of the second generation of Gross National Happiness (GNH) framework, also known as GNH Economics.

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There are two main reasons that caused mainstream economists and financial media to miss the financial crisis of 2008. The first is the NIH (Not Invented Here) bias, which is an organizational phenomenon manifested as an unwillingness to adopt an idea because it originates from unknown outsiders. It is a form of social cognition bias that leads to errors in group judgments such as missing on new opportunities or risks. The second reason is a cognition bias known as the Confirmation Bias which is the tendency to search for, filter in, or interpret information in a way that confirms existing preconceptions. The Confirmation Bias is recognized as an individual cognition bias, but when met with (NIH) bias it appears to develop into a social bias very similar to the Groupthink syndrome.

– Med Jones

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Over the long term, if government revenues continue to be less than the expenditures (deficit), then the economic health of the country worsens because this will result in accumulated debt. An increasing government debt will result in higher interest payments, and less money available for socioeconomic development. To pay for the debt, the government will have to raise taxes, which will reduce the competitive position of the country in the global economy and chase investors away resulting in less economic activities and more job losses. In order to avoid higher unemployment and social instability, the government have to raise more debt to fund spending and welfare support by raising the interest rate which will increase the cost of money, reduce corporate profits and slow economic investments, thus resulting in more job losses and reduced government revenues, despite income tax increases. It is what I call a vicious economic cycle.

– Med Jones

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American leaders created a system that allowed a free distribution of wealth and power. People leave their economic class and become richer regardless of their ethnic or national background. Therefore, despite having more diverse people in our society than any other nation, we have more stable national politics. If our elites try to limit the openness of the socioeconomic system, the system will be corrected in any number of forms including civic unrest. When Bush's administration invaded Iraq and bailed out Wall Street, the people brought in Obama. When Obama bailed out Wall Street again and considered raising the tax on the people, the system brought the Tea Party into power and the ruling party lost control of the Congress. People expressed their anger via peaceful elections.

– Med Jones

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Without peaceful international relations, there could be no economic stability and prosperity. On the political front, world leaders and UN veto-holding members could reset their foreign policies and stop burdening their economies and their people with international conflicts. The UN international courts of justice could be responsible for resolving international conflicts. The implementation of this solution requires a strong global leadership vision and action. Unfortunately the US leadership is limited by many conflicting private interest groups and is buried in domestic politics, ideological conflicts, and security issues. It is also unlikely that the global powers will let go of their power voluntarily and the situation will not get better before it gets worse.

– Med Jones

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The socioeconomic well-being theory explains that when the members of a sociopolitical system share the same economic interests and the existing system produces enough economic opportunities to meet the needs of the members, they are likely to tolerate existing differences and work together towards shared benefits. On the other hand, when the system fails to produce enough economic opportunities over a long period of time, the members of the system are likely to compete more aggressively for existing resources, causing divisions among the members to grow stronger. The degree of social cohesiveness will diminish and divisions could take different forms such as ethnic, religious and geographic conflicts and at times class warfare or civil wars. If not managed properly, such sociopolitical systems can become dysfunctional. If the dysfunction is left untreated, at a certain point it will take more energy to fix the system than to let it collapse.

– Med Jones

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Over the long term, if government revenues continue to be less than the expenditures (deficit). This will result in accumulated debt. An increasing government debt will result in higher interest payments, and less money available for socioeconomic development. To pay for the debt, the government will have to raise taxes, which will reduce the competitive position of the country in the global economy and chase investors away resulting in less economic activities and more job losses. In order to avoid higher unemployment and social instability, the government have to raise more debt to fund spending and welfare support by raising the interest rate which will increase the cost of money, reduce corporate profits and slow economic investments, thus resulting in more job losses and reduced government revenues, despite income tax increases. It is what I call a vicious economic cycle.

– Med Jones

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