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We would introduce some wealth management knowledge and expertise from Morgan Stanley, because they have successfully expanded their wealth management business (in the United States), we have seconded many young recruits to Morgan Stanley to get some hints, to get some expertise from their wealth management business.
While policymakers are still trying to maintain the trade-weighted (yuan) exchange rate in a stable range, we now anticipate that they will transition towards targeting a depreciation in the NEER (nominal effective exchange rate) about two quarters earlier than initially expected, this move will help policymakers to still cut interest rates to manage deflationary pressures, but will imply further depreciation of the yuan (against the dollar).
Were Nigeria to be removed from the index as a result of the dry-up in liquidity as forewarned by the index provider, upside risks to our naira forecast of 200-205 (per dollar) over the next 12 months could crystallise immediately, especially if one considers that its (annual) current account deficit could be up to ... $10 billion.
We have growing concerns about crude fundamentals and prices in 2H15 and 2016 after the quick recovery (since January) ... The market appears complacent about rising OPEC production and upcoming Iran discussions, both of which could more than offset U.S. declines, that said, retesting YTD (year-to-date) lows is very unlikely. Healthy transport demand, reflected in strong refining margins, capex cuts and low spare capacity should limit downside.
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