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The fundamentals for WTI remain weak for the coming months and stocks are expected to build at Cushing, for Brent, which is a broader indicator of the global crude market, it is a combination of supply and demand.
The fund community faded the attack last week on the assumption that supply would return very quickly, but the reality is likely to be different.
Leading edge indicators on U.S. supply suggest activity levels are stepping up, which is supportive for strong production growth in the second half.
I would expect oil to trade in a relatively tight band around $70 per for the time being, leading edge indicators on U.S. supply suggest activity levels are stepping up, which is supportive for strong production growth in the second half.
The physical market is very strong and we are now starting to trade post-turnaround barrels, which should mean physical markets strengthen and flat prices should follow.
For WTI (U.S. light crude) there is tightness at Cushing, which will be supportive over July and August.
For WTI there is tightness at Cushing, which will be supportive over July and August.
Cushing is clearly screaming out for crude.
This is the teapot effect, higher teapot demand and stronger refining margins which encouraged higher refinery throughputs have contributed to increased imports.
Higher teapot demand and stronger refining margins which encouraged higher refinery throughputs have contributed to increased imports.
Higher teapot demand and stronger refining margins which encouraged higher refinery throughputs have contributed to increased imports, falling domestic crude production is also supportive.
We think low $30's (per barrel) is a floor, but once positioning gets so biased anything can happen.
Inventories remain very, very high relative to the previous year and relative to the five-year norm.
The move with WTI trading above Brent is not fundamentally justified. It is overdone and you are likely to see some correction in that when markets return to some kind of normality in terms of volumes.
Iran was a key supplier to India pre-sanctions. I think that's where the interesting battle will play out between Iran and Iraq.
The battle is only going to intensify with the return of Iranian barrels from the second half of 2016.
With China decisively moving away from an industrial focus to consumer growth, there is little reason to be bullish long-term for metals.
We see 10-10.1 million bpd as the new norm for Saudi production given that more crude will be consumed domestically with the two new refineries ramping up to capacity.
Saudi Arabia's strategy of targeting market share amongst key Asian consumers remains at play, it's a buyers' market at the moment so Saudi will be looking to place its barrels aggressively or risk losing out.
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